Coronavirus Model Used to Crash US Economy MASSIVELY OVERSTATED Hospitalizations in 40 States
The IHME and Murray models being used to crash the economy have massively overstated the impact of the Coronavirus in 40 different states.
These models are using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US.
Murray predicted last week that Washington state should have needed nearly 2000 beds for these sick patients.
They only have 254 in the hospital.
NY – Murray: 50K beds
Actuals 18K
Actuals 18K
CA: 4100 vs. 1100
So based on the 40+ states which provide burden stats on hospitals Murray predicted that yesterday (April 1) we would been 103K beds for #COVID19 patients.
All of those states combined published that they ONLY had 30K beds with patients. and more than HALF of those were in NY
Here are 3 of the biggest targets for #COVID19. Washington was first out of gates. Murray predicts that YESTERDAY WA should have needed nearly 2000 beds for these sick patients.
They only have 254 in the hospital.
NY
Murray: 50K beds
Actuals 18K
CA: 4100 vs. 1100
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Florida, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado- again MISS, MISS, MISS, MISS!
Florida
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Miss, miss, miss, miss.
Even if you factor in data "lag" (which is a real problem)... it's hard to imagine that MURRAY is getting any of this right overstating things by 3x 4x 5x the number of beds needed.
109 people are talking about this
Connecticut, Delaware, Florida and Georgia – This model is overstating hospitalization by 2.5 times!
CT
DE
FL
GA
If I'm misinterpreting these numbers... someone stop me..
But I don't think I am... because others have called it out
Caution and "buffer" is good... but to shut down the country when the model missed this badly?!
75 people are talking about this
Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana — the number of ventilators needed is way off!
